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A mild winter? NOAA forecasts warmer-than-average weather for the upcoming season

While winter is still about two months away, it’s time to start looking ahead to the upcoming season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their outlook for the 2022-2023 winter Thursday morning.

In our area, the organization predicts 33-40% chance of a warmer-than-average winter. They cite the predicted La Niña in the Eastern Pacific as the primary reason for the forecast.

La Niñas typically produce warm and dry winter weather in the southern United States.

Research done by our weather team shows that 75% of La Niña winters feature below average snowfall in southwest and central Virginia.

NOAA winter temperature outlook

NOAA winter temperature outlook

The precipitation outlook isn’t as clear-cut for Southwest and Central Virginia.

Many of us are in the “equal chance” category for wetter or drier weather. The 33-40% drier-than-average category is right on our doorstep, though, so it appears NOAA is leaning in that direction.

NOAA winter precipitation outlook

NOAA winter precipitation outlook

While the temperature and precipitation outlooks don’t look good for snow-lovers, don’t give up hope just yet!

There are other factors that Your Local Weather Authority uses to determine the upcoming season’s snow forecast, like tropical activity, solar activity and Siberian snow cover.

We’ll be working on our forecast over the next month and you’ll see it on 10 News at 6 p.m. Thursday, November 17.

2022-2023 WSLS Winter Outlook airs Thursday, November 17 at 6 p.m.

2022-2023 WSLS Winter Outlook airs Thursday, November 17 at 6 p.m.

Source: WSLS News 10

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